Tuesday 29 October 2013

Globo (GBO) ... the very low down on downloads

Tuesday 29th October 2013

Some readers have taken issue with my use of Aruba Networks as a peer to Globo in my prior post, within the Enterprise Mobility/BYOD market. Good Technology, MobileIron and AirWatch have been proffered as more appropriate comparators. All three are owned by a range of private equity firms. As such, it is difficult to get any financial information on each company’s performance and standing within the Enterprise Mobility market.

However, ...

As you'd expect, each company (including Globo) has a downloadable app. So I thought it instructive to see if it's possible to work out how many times each app has been downloaded and what the users have to say. Cue Google search “How can I tell how many times an app has been downloaded?” I was pointed to this website: xyo.net

xyo.net is a very helpful website. It indicates how many times an app has been downloaded onto an iPhone, iPad, or Android based platform. So I searched for:

Globo’s EM product, GO!Enterprise;
Good Technology’s EM product, Good for Enterprise;
MobileIron’s EM product, MobileIron Mobile@Work;
Airwatch’s EM product, Airwatch MDM Agent. 

Here is the first search for Globo's GO!Enterprise ...

Searching for downloading of GO!Enterprise onto iPhone
Source: xyo.net
According to xyo.net, Globo's GO!Enterprise app has been downloaded c. 1,300 times as an iPhone app. There will be a margin of error, which is possibly up to 10%. 

This is the result for Good Technology's Good for Enterprise app onto iPhone ...

Searching for downloading of Good for Enterprise onto iPhone
Source: xyo.net
Good Technology's app has been downloaded c. 676,000 times onto an iPhone. 

Another noteworthy feature of these results is that while Good Technology's app gets a rather paltry rating of 3.1/10.0, Globo's app doesn't even get a rating.

The charts and table below highlight how many times each app has been downloaded (according to xyo.net) across iPhone, iPad and Android based systems. Globo's GO!Enterprise results are so small in comparison that they are not visible in the charts, so I have included a table. 

Reported number of downloads to iPhone, iPad and Android, 000's
Source: xyo.net
Total reported number of downloads, 000's
Source: xyo.net
Total reported number of downloads, 000's
Source: xyo.net
According to slide 38 of Globo's recent investor presentation, AirWatch has "an implied market value of over $1bn." 

Globo peers
Source: Proactiveinvestors.co.uk - Globo investor presentation
With AirWatch's MDM Agent app being downloaded c. 325,000 times, that would work out to be a valuation based on c. $3,077 per download. Similarly, as it is currently capitalised at £213m (c. $342m), Globo's valuation would work out to be c. $46,849 per download, or 15x greater than that of AirWatch's.

Disclaimer: The information, discussions or topics referred to on this blog should in no way be considered “advice” to buy or sell anything. The information which may be referred to is freely available in the public domain and where required the source of information is referenced to for verification. While every effort has been made to ensure the veracity of any information contained within this blog, the author accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of any information contained within this blog or for the sources of information which may be referred to. Readers are responsible for their own actions and interpretation of the information contained within this blog. 

28 comments:

  1. What a load of cobblers.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I agree. Which is why I sold it short.
      By the way, it's a tech company and not shoe related.

      Delete
  2. Don't for get Citrix that bought Zenprise.

    Also seek out a Gartner paper on MDM, and you will find that although Globo is mentioned, it is not rated because it does not meet their criteria. One can be downloaded from here:

    http://www.air-watch.com/resources/analyst-reports

    Also note that in the UK at least, the preferred offering of the leading mobile network operator (Vodafone) is a re-badged version of Airwatch.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why do you think globo bought notify you idiot. MDM functionality. Notify is on the same list in the psper.

      Delete
    2. My view is that GBO bought Notify out of desperation. Others may disagree.

      Delete
  3. See if this image works:

    http://cdn.ws.citrix.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/249820_1.png

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks. Had seen it. Not very inspiring for GBO's investors.

      Delete
  4. Once again you are producing incomplete research,like yesterday when you chose to omit the hundreds of millions of dollars Aruba has raised through equity.
    If you are going to make accusations please be unbiased ,otherwise people might just think you are working to an agenda.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please feel free to complete.

      Further, if you can, then please demonstrate how you arrive at this view of Aruba raising hundreds of millions of dollars. I think you have previously quoted $620m in equity.

      Matt

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    2. Matthew

      Have a look at the balance sheet - I suggest the Capital Surplus would be a good place to start. You will see equity is growing, whilst retained losses are increasing. Go figure, as they say.

      If you do a bit more digging around you'll find that Aruba is really just run for the purpose of rewarding certain employees at the expense of shareholders (think stock options and how they are accounted for). You will then get the answer for Aruba's miserable performance compared with Globo.

      Delete
    3. Matthew please give me a break...

      Can you read Aruba's accounts? Are you serious???

      Go to http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MTk5NjY1fENoaWxkSUQ9LTF8VHlwZT0z&t=1

      and look at the "Additional paid-in capital" under Stockholder's equity

      The last number of Q4 2013 says $623,155 million !!!!!!

      Delete
    4. As all these posts are anonymous I do not know whether it is the same poster or not.

      Anyway, I do not suggest that Aruba is better business than Globo. Nor that it has been remarkably profitable. Nor that it has issued equity in the past. But the last material issue of equity was in 2007.

      Matt

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    5. Aruba issued 3.5m shares for $93m in the last financial year and 2.8m shares for $85m in the prior year, the benefit of which was trousered by the employees at the expense of stockholders. Total share capital has increased from $326m at 31 July 2010 to $623m three years later.

      How you consider that not to be material is beyond comprehension. Yet you claim some expertise in the analysis of balance sheets. My advice; don't give up the day job.... oh I see unfortunately you already have

      Delete
    6. Aruba has issued and expensed equity as a feature of employee compensation. I reckon there is a difference between external capital raising measures and internal issuance of equity. Further, Aruba's employees may be happy (I can't speak for them) to accept equity in their business. By contrast, Globo's employees are sellers of its equity in size.

      You seem to be missing my point. I'm not suggesting that Aruba is a fantastic business. Indeed, it may also be a worthy short. What I am highlighting is the aggressive nature of Globo's accounting in contrast to another player's accounting within the industry. Do you not concede that Globo is very aggressive in its accounting? It is a company which capitalises a huge amount of cost, has receivables up to its ears, employs off balance sheet measures, raises ever increasing amounts of external capital, never generates any free cash flow, from what I can tell has minimal interest in its product relative to peers, and now has directors selling in spades.

      We'll just have to wait until Thursday to hear what they have to say. Why does it takes them so long to drum up an explanation? But it had better be good or the market will continue to slaughter the share price.

      In the meantime, I am happy to discuss different views, but would you keep the personal aspect out of it?

      Matt

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    7. Your last point first: you are claiming expertise in this area; so to whom much is given, much is required. Your analysis here does not match the rather grand claim you make about yourself.

      "Do you not concede that Globo is very aggressive in its accounting?" No. And your analysis does not provide any evidence of this, merely a comparison with a company which in its raising of equity seems to be serving the interests of some of its employees at the expense of shareholders.

      "It is a company which capitalises a huge amount of cost." Er so? If you took the trouble to read the accounting policies you will find out what it is doing and why. Have you not heard of IAS 38? Have you not heard of the matching principle? Have you considered the impact on Globo's 2012 profit if development were not capitalised? Have you explained how you conclude that it is "huge"? Have you explained why the comparison with Aruba, adopting as it does USGAAP, does not really work ?



      Delete
  5. Britan's very own Carson Block! Good research.

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  6. Hi Matt, nice piece of research. Are you ever tempted to turn comments off? All these muppets with nothing better to do than spend their days posting crap on these blogs must get you down at times. Most cannot even spell. I doubt if they have never owned a share in their lives .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi

      I thought there would be more interest in debating views than just typing insults. I've had far worse though.

      When I was working as a city analyst, I issued a sell note on Connaught. The CEO at the time sent an email round to institutions, press etc declaring "…a fundamentally flawed and very mediocre analyst's note which simply repeated unfounded rumours and nonsense from the past while getting the numbers wrong at the same time - a masterful feat of incompetence."

      He was right in me getting the numbers wrong. I was far too optimistic! Six months later, Connaught was bust. I learnt to ignore insults.

      Thanks for the feedback.

      Best

      Matt

      Delete
  7. If you are going to write about app downloads,you should really get your facts straight.Oh but truth is the first casualty of shorters.

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  8. Matt,

    have you ever had a look at Globo's product????

    Go to page : http://www.globoplc.com/default.aspx?lang=en-GB&page=31

    read the third sentence, it says:

    "Additionally, GO!Mobile Client is distributed directly form GO!Enterprise server to end users without the need to have an app store account by utilizing Enterprise Licencing options provided by most OS vendors such as Google, Apple, etc."

    So there is no way that all these sites know the exact number of downloads as Globo offers the download from their GO!ES server directly.

    Apparently Globo offers it and through the Appstores if you happen top have an account with Apple, Google or Microsoft...

    The truth though is that if you are a business, you cannot force enterprise users to become iTunes users (which demands credit card) or Google Play market user (Which demands a google account) just because you need them to download an enterprise App.

    So all respectable firms buy an Enterprise certificate, give it to Globo to compile the App and then the App is distributed directly from the GO!Enterprise Server without needing to go through an Appstore.

    Obviously this makes the download "INVINSIBLE" from the markets as it is PRIVATE !!!

    It is obvious you know too little about technology...

    Bye for now...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi,

      I never suggested the site knows the exact number of downloads. Although 7k as compared to Air-Watch on 325k, MobileIron on 592k, and Good Technology on 1.7m does raise an eyebrow.

      I note you omit the second sentence to the page:

      "GO!Mobile Client can be fully white-labeled with a custom logo, splash screen and colors and uploaded as a new mobile app to the mobile app stores."

      Of course you cannot force employees to become iTunes or Google Play users. Although I would imagine most people don't need forcing as they already ARE users.

      Why do you suppose the others (Good Technology, MobileIron, Air-Watch) do go down the app store route?

      Matt

      Delete
  9. To the poster(s) incandescent with rage - be grateful you found this blog, read it, take it in and learn from it. What the writer shows you in analysis techniques will help you understand things better and see through the rubbish. Why the tantrums? You may have bought a dog, so sell it to other people who were as ignorant as you used to be.

    Alex

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  10. Mr Earl you are now seemingly contradicting yourself.Did Aruba raise a vast amount of equity or not?

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  11. Mr Earl,is the fact that you have sold short this company clouding your judgement to independently analyse this company.
    You are putting out an awful lot of misinformation,verging on lies.
    I am getting really rather concerned.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mr Anonymous,

      Not at all. I analysed it and then shorted it. Why would I do it the other way round?

      What does "verging on lies" mean? Either something is a lie or it isn't. Where have I lied or misinformed?

      Concerned about what?

      Delete
  12. Concerned that you are deliberately putting out misleading information,the purpose of which is for your financial gain.
    Research is not objective if you have a vested interest in the outcome.
    I think the regulator needs to take a long hard look at people like you that are using the cover of blogs with disclaimers to in effect bypass what would in effect be illegal market manipulation.
    You have tried to paint a picture which is highly misleading.

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    Replies
    1. You are wrong. The order of events I follow is to conduct objective research and then apply what it tells me. Why would I do it the other way round? I researched Globo and came to the conclusion it's a dud. So I then shorted. Just because ex-post I am short does not mean that ex-ante the research was not objective. Makes perfect sense to me.

      Matt

      Delete