Tuesday, 26 November 2013

Market ... danger ahead?

Tuesday 26th November 2013

The charts below have turned me bearish. So I've shorted the major US indices.
 
Valuations close to decade highs
S&P forward P/E approaching 10 year highs
Source: Bloomberg

 Investor sentiment turning down
AAII US Investor Sentiment Bull to Bear ratio compared to S&P
Source: Bloomberg

 Pitiful volume throughout the latest bull market and getting worse
Prior bull markets and associated volume
Source: Bloomberg

 VIX index at lows - is the market complacent?
VIX Index at lows
Source: Bloomberg

 AUDUSD decoupled
AUDUSD compared to S&P - decoupled
Source: Bloomberg

 What is going on in China???
Chinese BBB 5 Year Corp Credit Yield
Source: Bloomberg

 World GDP forecasts cratering while market at all-time highs
World GDP consensus forecasts, %YOY compared to S&P
Source: Bloomberg
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