US macro data has been on the up for a while. Who knows, the risks may even be skewed to positive surprised for Europe and China? Although that may be a long shot. I noticed that Caterpillar (CAT US, mkt cap $64bn) yesterday announced its Q4 numbers. 2012 was a record year. The mood for the 2013 outlook was wary ... "The range of our 2013 outlook reflects the level of uncertainty we see in the world today." However, it goes on to suggest that "If the recent improvement in economic indicators continues, 2013 could be another record year for Caterpillar."
Back in September last, I picked out United Rentals (URI US, mkt cap $4.7bn) as a worthy long at $34/shr (URI link). It’s rallied to $51/shr. I liked URI as its peer, Ashtead (AHT LN, mkt cap £2.3bn), had already gone gangbusters (and continues to). I also liked the US cyclical recovery aspect of it, and its value. I like CAT for similar reasons. If the US equipment rental providers are experiencing better levels of activity, at some stage this should filter through to outright purchases. So the US is likely to present reasonable demand and CAT reckons that China will begin to improve also.
Back in September last, I picked out United Rentals (URI US, mkt cap $4.7bn) as a worthy long at $34/shr (URI link). It’s rallied to $51/shr. I liked URI as its peer, Ashtead (AHT LN, mkt cap £2.3bn), had already gone gangbusters (and continues to). I also liked the US cyclical recovery aspect of it, and its value. I like CAT for similar reasons. If the US equipment rental providers are experiencing better levels of activity, at some stage this should filter through to outright purchases. So the US is likely to present reasonable demand and CAT reckons that China will begin to improve also.
CAT trades at a fairly
undemanding 10x next year’s earnings and 8x on an EV/EBITDA basis. Further the Call options for May at strikes between $110-120/shr appear to me to be remarkably
cheap for a stock whose price can move quickly. Via ETX Capital the $110 strike
for May can be bought for 79 cents, the $115 for 35 cents and the $120 for 17
cents. So I trousered a stack of them.
And another thing ...
I also like the chart, which
looks as though a W-pattern may be in progress and the fact that the brokers are
now talking the stock up.
CAT share price Source: Bloomberg |
CAT vs. United Rentals Source: Bloomberg |
CAT valuation, forward P/E and EV/EBITDA Source: Bloomberg |
Disclaimer: The information, discussions
or topics referred to on this blog should in no way be considered “advice” to
buy or sell anything. The information which may be referred to is freely
available in the public domain and where required the source of information is
referenced to for verification. While every effort has been made to ensure the
veracity of any information contained within this blog, the author accepts no
responsibility for the accuracy of any information contained within this blog or
for the sources of information which may be referred to. Readers are
responsible for their own actions and interpretation of the information
contained within this blog.