Thursday, 17 July 2014

Volatility looming? ...

Thursday 17th July 2014

I bought the VIX earlier. After all, it's been a while since a decent spike. The mid to high teens looms large ... 

Volatility Index
Source: Bloomberg
It's been longer still since a surge into the 20s ...

Volatility Index
Source: Bloomberg

Disclaimer: The information, discussions or topics referred to on this blog should in no way be considered “advice” to buy or sell anything. The information which may be referred to is freely available in the public domain and where required the source of information is referenced to for verification. While every effort has been made to ensure the veracity of any information contained within this blog, the author accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of any information contained within this blog or for the sources of information which may be referred to. Readers are responsible for their own actions and interpretation of the information contained within this blog.

Wednesday, 16 July 2014

Globo (GBO) ... a peek at the Greek

Wednesday 16th July 2014
  • Globo (GBO) divested 51% of its Greek operation, Globo Technologies (GT), in Dec 2012.
  • GBO values GT at c. €23.7 million.
  • 57% of GT’s net book value appears to be related to capitalised intangibles/software.
  • 17% of GT’s net book value appears to be trade receivables over one year past due.
  • GT’s revenue declined by 29% in 2013.
  • GT's software related revenue fell by €14.480 million or by 75% in 2013. 
  • GBO's Enterprise and Mobile software project revenues rose by €17.781 million in 2013.
  • GT reported a €12.529 million cash outflow in 2013, largely on intangible/software items. 
  • GT’s net debt has risen to €13.731 million in 2013 (2012: €0.780 million).
  • GT trade receivables and revenue recognised under IAS 11 is 101% of 2013 revenue.
  • 36% of GT’s trade receivables are over one year past due.
  • GT has not reported positive operating cash flow for two consecutive years.
  • GT's 2013 free cash flow was negative c. €12.867 million. 
  • GT is held on GBO’s balance sheet with a value of €11.625 million (2012: €10.464 million).
  • GT's management still owe GBO €9.7 million.
  • I am short GBO.

Globo’s (GBO) 49% stake in Globo Technologies S.A. (GT) is held on Globo’s balance sheet with a value of €11.625 million as “Investments in an Associate”, while €9.700 million is due from GT's management as “Proceeds from disposal of a subsidiary”. A total of €21.325 million is attributable to GT, which is just over 15% of GBO’s net asset value for 2013. Other than an update from September 2013, little has been heard of GT since GBO’s Greek operation was divested on 3 December 2012.

Globo 2013 accounts: Investment in Associate
Globo 2013 accounts: Proceeds due from Globo Technologies
GBO sold 51% of its subsidiary, Globo Technologies (GT), to a company called, Zipersi Consulting, owned by GT’s management team. GT was sold for €11.2 million. This was deferred consideration. In fact the payment schedule seemed particularly favourable, with only €2.0 million of the deferred consideration due over the first two years and €9.2 million due from December 2014, through to a final instalment of €3.7 million due in December 2016.

In addition to the preferential financing terms, according to GBO's 2012 annual report, in note 15, while an initial €400,000 was received by GBO as a first receipt of consideration due from GT's management team, it would also appear that €7,061,000 in cash and cash equivalents went to GT. This resulted in a net cash outflow on disposal of GT, of €6,661,000. This is an altogether odd flow of cash for a disposal. Usually one would imagine that the cash flows from the acquirer to the vendor and not the other way around, albeit with an understanding that it flows back over the years to come.


Net cash outflow upon disposal from Globo to Globo Technologies
Source: Globo 2012 annual report


Flow of cash from Globo to Globo Technologies
and anticipated deferred consideration schedule from GT's management team
Source: Globo 2012 annual report 

One may ask why GBO elected to sell 51% of its stake in GT? If the business was bad, then why not sell all of it? If it was a good business, then why sell it at all, or even as much as 51%? Especially on preferential financing terms to the management team buyers?  

The upshot of all this was partly aesthetic in that a boat load of receivables prior recorded on GBO’s balance sheet, were replaced by a relatively anodyne “Investment in associate” and “Proceeds due”. Indeed this was alluded to in the accompanying divestment announcement:

“In addition, the exclusion of assets and liabilities (including debt) from the Group’s balance sheet will provide significant additional visibility to the investor community on the Group’s international operations and financial performance.”

Globo updated the market on 23 September 2013, as to its own and GT’s performance. At that time, GBO’s CFO, Mr Dimitris Gryparis stated:

“The divested company Globo Technologies S.A. is out-performing expectations and trading ahead of forecasts. For the six months ended 30 June 2013, its revenue increased by 233% to €13.64 million (H1 2012: €4.09 million). It has a pipeline of public and private sector contracts of more than €10 million to the end of the year.

Profit after tax reached €1.49 million, with that attributable to the Globo Group, as a 49% shareholder, being €0.7 million.”

GT’s 2013 full year accounts can be found here. They highlight that revenue in the full 2013 year was €25.224 million, down from €35.701 million in 2012. There are several things to note here:
  1. This is a dramatic year on year decline in revenue. Revenue fell by 29%.
  2. If, as GBO’s CFO highlights, GT achieved €13.64 million of revenue in H1 2013, as against €4.09 million for H1 2012, then this means that GT’s H2 2012 revenue would have been €31.611 million. This would imply that while GT’s H1 2013 revenue may have been 233% higher as compared to H1 2012, that H1 2013 revenue was 57% lower than revenue achieved in H2 2012. Further, at €11.584 million, H2 2013 revenue would be 63% lower than H2 2012 revenue. See GT's revenue trends as implied by Globo statements and GT's 2013 accounts in the chart below.  
  3. GT's revenue decline was attributable in the main to a €14.480 million fall in software applications revenue. This fell from €19.209 million in 2012 to €4.729 million in 2013. A drop of 75%. Incidentally, in the same year, GBO's Enterprise mobility licences & subscriptions and Mobile software projects business lines were going great guns. They grew revenue a combined €17.781 million in 2013. As highlighted further down, while GT's software related revenue plummeted, its cash outflows on capitalised software related items went considerably higher. Why was this when revenues were falling so sharply? 

Revenue of Globo Technologies as implied by Globo statements and Globo Technologies accounts
Source: Globo, Globo Technologies annual reports

The quality of GT’s revenues is also worth considering. GT’s accounts highlight that revenue rose and fell as follows in the chart below during 2010 to 2013:

Globo Technologies revenue: 2010 to 2013
Source: Globo Technologies annual reports
GT’s trade receivables were as follows during 2010 to 2013, highlighted in the chart below:

Globo Technologies trade receivables: 2010 to 2013
Source: Globo Technologies annual reports

GT’s revenue recognised under IAS 11, which is essentially revenue recognised under long-term contracts and the corresponding cash due, was as follows during 2010 to 2013 as highlighted in the chart below:

Globo Technologies revenue recognised under IAS 11: 2010 to 2013
Source: Globo Technologies annual reports

And finally, adding trade receivables and revenue recognised under IAS 11 together and contrasting this with reported revenue during 2010 to 2013 was as highlighted in the chart below:

Globo Technologies revenue, trade receivables and revenue recognised under IAS 11: 2010 to 2013
Source: Globo Technologies annual reports

GT’s 2013 trade receivables and revenue recognised under IAS 11 is equivalent to 101% of revenue in 2013. This was up from 64% in 2012. 

Having established that GT’s revenue was equivalent to 101% of its trade receivables and revenue recognised under IAS 11, now what about the quality of those trade receivables?

Trade receivables were reported as €15.770 million in 2012. Of these, €1.365 million was reported as being above 360 days overdue. Hence in 2012, 9% trade receivables were over a year past due.

By 2013, trade receivables were reported as €12.363 million. Of these, €4.402 million were reported as being above 360 days overdue. Thus in 2013, 36% of trade receivables were over a year past due.

English translation of Globo Technologies ageing of trade receivables
Source: Globo Technologies 2013 annual report
Greek original of Globo Technologies ageing of trade receivables
Source: Globo Technologies 2013 annual report

Percentage of Globo Technologies trade receivables over 360 days past due
Source: Globo Technologies annual report

So we have now established that GT’s trade receivables and revenue recognised under IAS 11 was equivalent to 101% of revenue in 2013 and that 36% of its trade receivables were over a year past due. I reckon this to be an alarming deterioration in the quality of revenue and corresponding cash flows.

Of course in the spirit of openness, it is worth highlighting that:
  1. While 2013 revenue experienced an outright decline of 29% YOY;
  2. and that this (101%) was more than all reflected in trade receivables and revenue recognised under IAS 11;
  3. and that 36% of these trade receivables were more than a year past due;
  4. that GT’s operating profit actually improved (!!!) by 144% to €5.980 million in 2013 from €2.453 million in 2012.

But also worth highlighting is that GT’s net debt increased from €0.780 million in 2012, to €13.731 million in 2013, as illustrated in the chart below, and indicated in the company's balance sheet. This was primarily driven by an increase in long term debt from €0.953 million in 2012 to €15.533 million in 2013. The extra debt was seemingly needed to fund GT's considerable rise in capitalised software related cash outflows.

Globo Technologies net debt
Source: Globo Technologies annual reports


English translation of Globo Technologies 2013 balance sheet
Source: Globo Technologies 2013 annual report
Greek original of Globo Technologies 2013 balance sheet
Source: Globo Technologies 2013 annual report

GT’s cash flow statement highlights that it spent a fair wodge of cash on the purchase of tangible and intangible assets in 2013. GT’s cash flow statement highlights that there was a €12.529 million outflow related to the purchase of tangible and intangible assets in 2013, up from €6.050 million in 2012. The bulk if not all of this appears to have gone on "Δικαιώματα βιομηχανικής ιδιοκτησίας", which is translated as being "Industrial property rights". As this falls in the intangible assets section, I presume this means some sort of software related licensing or development. 

So while GT’s net assets were reported to have risen to €25.853 million in 2013, from €22.617 million in 2012, this was more than driven by an increase in reported intangible/software assets to €14.679 million in 2013, from €3.362 million in 2012. I.e., of GT’s 2013 net assets of €25.853 million, 57% (€14.679 million) is in the main, "Industrial property rights" or software related licensing or development. 

... Oh and whilst on GT's net book value, do not forget that of €12.363 million in trade receivables in GT’s net assets, 36% are over a year past due, hence 17% of GT's net assets is actually trade receivables over a year old.

... And also recall that software application related revenues fell by €14.480 million in 2013, while seemingly c. €11.047 million in software related expenditure was capitalised in 2013.  


English translation of Globo Technologies 2013 cash flow statement
Source: Globo Technologies 2013 annual report

Globo Technologies cash flow statement
Source: Globo Technologies 2013 annual report

Why is this important? It’s important because having been 51% disposed of, seemingly to eradicate unappealing trade receivables, GT is now booked on GBO’s balance sheet with an implied value of €23.7 million. This is almost GT's net book value (NBV), a book value of which 57% (2012: 16%) is comprised of software related development or licensing. A further 17% (2012: 6%) of GT's NBV is attributable to trade receivables which are over a year past due. Further, GBO has marginally increased its valuation on a company where revenue fell by 29% in 2013, and over 100% of that revenue is reflected in trade receivables plus revenue recognised under IAS 11. Further still, while software related revenues plummeted in 2013, software related cash outflows sky-rocketed. In the meantime, GBO's Enterprise and Mobile software business experienced strong revenue growth. In terms of cash flow, GT hasn't generated positive operating cash for two years running. Free cash flow was negative €12.256 million in 2013. GT's net debt has ballooned. And GT's management still owes GBO €9.7 million!

What would Mr Mostafa Khder say about all this?


Mr Mostafa Khder, reviewer of Globo's GO!Enterprise app
Source: Google Play


Disclaimer: The information, discussions or topics referred to on this blog should in no way be considered “advice” to buy or sell anything. The information which may be referred to is freely available in the public domain and where required the source of information is referenced to for verification. While every effort has been made to ensure the veracity of any information contained within this blog, the author accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of any information contained within this blog or for the sources of information which may be referred to. Readers are responsible for their own actions and interpretation of the information contained within this blog. 

Monday, 12 May 2014

Avanti (AVN) ... gravity

Monday 12th May 2014

I shorted more Avanti, at 283p/shr, on the basis that I reckon this morning's trading statement (for Q3) was pretty poor. So I'm of the conclusion that the group may need to raise further funds within a year. Gravity may be about to kick in.  

A few points that made me add to my short. 

  • While the group reports a $2 million loss for the 9 months to 31st March 2014, it is worth bearing in mind that this likely includes the exceptional receipt of $6.5 million; reported at the interims in February. Hence, from ongoing operations, the group is still loss making by $8.5 million at the EBITDA level. 
  • The reported EBITDA level through the 9 months to 31st March 2014, suggests that the loss for the quarter may have actually risen. At the interim stage, Avanti reported $1 million in EBITDA, or negative $5.5 million when accounting for the exceptional gain. This works out at an average loss of $2.75 million per quarter. If the loss through the 9 months was $8.5 million, then this would suggest that the loss during Q3 was $3 million. I.e. the financial  performance appears to be deteriorating. 
  • The net debt figure appears to have risen from $284 million at the end of Q2 to $299 million at the end of Q3. However, this was to the period ending 31st March 2014. My understanding is that this would be one day prior to the semi-annual coupon payable on the group's bond; Bloomberg indicates that the coupon is paid semi-annually on 1st April and then 1st October. Avanti pays 10% on its $370 million bond. Hence, $18.5 million would have been paid the day after Q3 ended, so Avanti's net debt position is likely be closer to $317.5 million assuming no significant operating cash has been received.
  • On the basis of consensus capex assumption for FY 2014, of $25 million (according to Bloomberg), I reckon there is a strong possibility that further funds will need to be raised. 
  • The backlog was reported to have increased by $3 million during the quarter to $458 million. However, even on account of the fact that this was after some backlog had been taken to revenue, I still reckon the additional gain was pretty lacklustre and points towards visibility declining as opposed to increasing. 
  • Finally, I do not see that the consensus forecasts below portray any encouraging trends. 
So I increased my short.

Avanti - consensus net debt forecasts still rising
Source: Bloomberg
Avanti - consensus sales forecasts still slipping
Source: Bloomberg
Avanti - consensus EBITDA forecast still sliding
Source: Bloomberg
Disclaimer: The information, discussions or topics referred to on this blog should in no way be considered “advice” to buy or sell anything. The information which may be referred to is freely available in the public domain and where required the source of information is referenced to for verification. While every effort has been made to ensure the veracity of any information contained within this blog, the author accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of any information contained within this blog or for the sources of information which may be referred to. Readers are responsible for their own actions and interpretation of the information contained within this blog. 

Tuesday, 8 April 2014

Globo (GBO) ... from Burma with love ...

Tuesday 8th April 2014


It's been a few months since I checked on the number of times Globo's, GO!Enterprise app has been downloaded. And no sooner had the paucity of downloads been highlighted, there has been remarkable growth!

According to the website, xyo.net, downloads to iPhone appear to have almost doubled from c. 2,700 in January, to c. 4,400 in April. No change in iPad downloads ... meh! But downloads to Android device have sky-rocketed. Back in January, Android downloads totalled just c. 5,000. Now they're at a whopping c. 45,000.

The table below details the number of times each of Globo's and its competitors' apps had been downloaded across iPhone, iPad and Android devices through to 28th January 2014.

Total number of reported downloads through to 28th January 2014
Source: xyo.net
The table below is an updated version of the above, through to 8th April 2014. There is supposedly a margin of error of c. 10%, but even so, this is incredible growth for Globo and dwarfs that of its peers. Total downloads are up 83% as compared to Good for Enterprise achieving 7% growth, and MobileIron and AirWatch each growing by 12% in the same period. Of course, Globo's growth is also helped by the low starting base, but still, these growth numbers are impressive. 

Total number of reported downloads through to 8th April 2014
Source: xyo.net
However, ...

Over on Google play, there's also been a sudden raft of reviews. Although I find the usefulness of most of these reviews somewhat questionable.

Page 1 of reviews on Google Play for Globo's GO!Enterprise app
Source: Google Play
Page 2 of reviews on Google Play for Globo's GO!Enterprise app
Source: Google Play
A recent review comes from a gentleman named, Mostafa Khder. Little is known about Mr Khder, other than that he is male, and doesn't like bright lights. Mr Mostafa Khder's whereabouts are a mystery.  

Mr Mostafa Khder, most recent reviewer for GO!Enterprise
Source: Google Play
Mr Khder rated the GO!Enterprise app with 5 stars and the short but encouraging comment "Good Excellent."

Other apps Mr Khder has rated include:

'Hot and Sexy Videos', for which he also gave it 5 stars, and the comment "Good Excellent."
and
'Remove Clothes', for which he also gave it 5 stars, and again the comment "Good Excellent."

Another recent review comes from Mr Marco Tristian, giving off a Dennis the Menace vibe. Mr Tristian hails from Indonesia.

Mr Marco Tristian, 2nd most recent reviewer for GO!Enterprise
Source: Google Play
Mr Tristian rated the GO!Enterprise app with a rather mediocre 3 stars, but added the insightful comment "Ok Ok." I'm not entirely sure whether Mr Tristian speaks English, so "Ok Ok" is a pretty good effort.

North of Indonesia, from Burma, we find that the interestingly named, Ms Aquair Marine, has also taken the time to rate and review Globo's, GO!Enterprise app. Ms Marine attends the Yangon Institute of Education and rates the Bring Your Own Device app, a middling 3 stars, with the probably well meaning but sort of irrelevant comment "U do everything without any selfish." 

Ms Aquair Marine, smiley Burmese reviewer for GO!Enterprise
Source: Google Play
Also from Burma, Mr Phyo Lin, a 33 year old music composer, has apparently put forward his view on the GO!Enterprise app. Mr Lin gives the app a punchy 4 stars. You can tell he likes it because he says so, leaving the comment "Like it good." From the photo below, you may have banked on him being a fisherman. But as I've mentioned, he's actually a music composer, which when you think about it does make much more sense for his need for a Bring Your Own Device product.

Mr Phyo Lin, Burmese music composer and reviewer for GO!Enterprise
Source: Google Play
Another reviewer, Ms Tejaswi Kavuru, really likes the app. Ms Kavuru gives it 5 stars, and a friendly but pointless comment "Hi Nothing." Ms Kavuru is quite mysterious with just a picture of a yellow rose for her profile photo. I haven't posted the picture of the yellow rose. We all know what they look like.

Mr King Malik, not sure where he's from, but apparently he works for Al Jazeera, gives the app a 5 star rating and the informative comment "Jh Ni."

Back to Burma again, and, Ms Moe Moe Masaung, loves Globo's GO!Enterprise app. Moe Moe rates it 5 stars and says "Moe Mg."

From Bangladesh, Mr Abdul Hannan, who describes himself as working at a "hi speed stone crusher", gives the app 4 stars and simply says "Video Whats this."

These reviews are all really quite odd.

Now compare all these reviews to the first two review pages for Good Technology's, Good for Enterprise, app.

Page 1 of reviews on Google Play for Good Technology's, Good for Enterprise app
Source: Google Play
Page 2 of reviews on Google Play for Good Technology's, Good for Enterprise app
Source: Google Play

Ok, the ratings may not be so great, but at least the comments are intelligible, and probably from Good's actual target markets. Hmmm ...

Disclaimer: The information, discussions or topics referred to on this blog should in no way be considered “advice” to buy or sell anything. The information which may be referred to is freely available in the public domain and where required the source of information is referenced to for verification. While every effort has been made to ensure the veracity of any information contained within this blog, the author accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of any information contained within this blog or for the sources of information which may be referred to. Readers are responsible for their own actions and interpretation of the information contained within this blog.