Tuesday 26 November 2013

Market ... danger ahead?

Tuesday 26th November 2013

The charts below have turned me bearish. So I've shorted the major US indices.
 
Valuations close to decade highs
S&P forward P/E approaching 10 year highs
Source: Bloomberg

 Investor sentiment turning down
AAII US Investor Sentiment Bull to Bear ratio compared to S&P
Source: Bloomberg

 Pitiful volume throughout the latest bull market and getting worse
Prior bull markets and associated volume
Source: Bloomberg

 VIX index at lows - is the market complacent?
VIX Index at lows
Source: Bloomberg

 AUDUSD decoupled
AUDUSD compared to S&P - decoupled
Source: Bloomberg

 What is going on in China???
Chinese BBB 5 Year Corp Credit Yield
Source: Bloomberg

 World GDP forecasts cratering while market at all-time highs
World GDP consensus forecasts, %YOY compared to S&P
Source: Bloomberg
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