Monday 12 May 2014

Avanti (AVN) ... gravity

Monday 12th May 2014

I shorted more Avanti, at 283p/shr, on the basis that I reckon this morning's trading statement (for Q3) was pretty poor. So I'm of the conclusion that the group may need to raise further funds within a year. Gravity may be about to kick in.  

A few points that made me add to my short. 

  • While the group reports a $2 million loss for the 9 months to 31st March 2014, it is worth bearing in mind that this likely includes the exceptional receipt of $6.5 million; reported at the interims in February. Hence, from ongoing operations, the group is still loss making by $8.5 million at the EBITDA level. 
  • The reported EBITDA level through the 9 months to 31st March 2014, suggests that the loss for the quarter may have actually risen. At the interim stage, Avanti reported $1 million in EBITDA, or negative $5.5 million when accounting for the exceptional gain. This works out at an average loss of $2.75 million per quarter. If the loss through the 9 months was $8.5 million, then this would suggest that the loss during Q3 was $3 million. I.e. the financial  performance appears to be deteriorating. 
  • The net debt figure appears to have risen from $284 million at the end of Q2 to $299 million at the end of Q3. However, this was to the period ending 31st March 2014. My understanding is that this would be one day prior to the semi-annual coupon payable on the group's bond; Bloomberg indicates that the coupon is paid semi-annually on 1st April and then 1st October. Avanti pays 10% on its $370 million bond. Hence, $18.5 million would have been paid the day after Q3 ended, so Avanti's net debt position is likely be closer to $317.5 million assuming no significant operating cash has been received.
  • On the basis of consensus capex assumption for FY 2014, of $25 million (according to Bloomberg), I reckon there is a strong possibility that further funds will need to be raised. 
  • The backlog was reported to have increased by $3 million during the quarter to $458 million. However, even on account of the fact that this was after some backlog had been taken to revenue, I still reckon the additional gain was pretty lacklustre and points towards visibility declining as opposed to increasing. 
  • Finally, I do not see that the consensus forecasts below portray any encouraging trends. 
So I increased my short.

Avanti - consensus net debt forecasts still rising
Source: Bloomberg
Avanti - consensus sales forecasts still slipping
Source: Bloomberg
Avanti - consensus EBITDA forecast still sliding
Source: Bloomberg
Disclaimer: The information, discussions or topics referred to on this blog should in no way be considered “advice” to buy or sell anything. The information which may be referred to is freely available in the public domain and where required the source of information is referenced to for verification. While every effort has been made to ensure the veracity of any information contained within this blog, the author accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of any information contained within this blog or for the sources of information which may be referred to. Readers are responsible for their own actions and interpretation of the information contained within this blog. 

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  30. We are direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC and MTN which are specifically for lease/sales, our bank instrument can be engage in PPP Trading, Discounting, signature project(s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication, construction of Dams, Bridges, Real Estate and all kind of projects. We do not have any broker chain in our offer or get involved in chauffeur driven offers. We deliver with time and precision as sethforth in the agreement. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable, below is our instrument description. The procedure is very simple; the instrument will be reserved on euro clear to be verified by your bank, after verification an arrangement will be made for necessary bank documents and stock testing expenses, the cost of the Bank Guarantee/Standby Letter of Credit will be paid after the delivery of the MT760, Description OF INSTRUMENTS: 1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG/SBLC) 2. Total Face Value: Eur/USD 5M MIN and Eur/USD 10B MAX (Ten Billion EURO/USD). 3. Issuing Bank: HSBC Bank London, Barclay's bank London,Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank Frankfurt. 4. Age: One Year, One Month 5. Purchasing Price: 32% of face value plus 2% commission fees Leasing Price: 4% of Face Value plus 1% commission fees. 6. Delivery: Bank to Bank swift. 7. Payment: MT-103 or MT760 8. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days. We are ready to close leasing/Buying with any interested client in few banking days, if interested do not hesitate to contact me Name : PAUL DAVID Email: pauldavid20001@gmail.com Skype: P_david123@outlook.com whatsapp:+447921551354

    ReplyDelete
  31. We are direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC and MTN which are specifically for lease/sales, our bank instrument can be engage in PPP Trading, Discounting, signature project(s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication, construction of Dams, Bridges, Real Estate and all kind of projects. We do not have any broker chain in our offer or get involved in chauffeur driven offers. We deliver with time and precision as sethforth in the agreement. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable, below is our instrument description. The procedure is very simple; the instrument will be reserved on euro clear to be verified by your bank, after verification an arrangement will be made for necessary bank documents and stock testing expenses, the cost of the Bank Guarantee/Standby Letter of Credit will be paid after the delivery of the MT760, Description OF INSTRUMENTS: 1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG/SBLC) 2. Total Face Value: Eur/USD 5M MIN and Eur/USD 10B MAX (Ten Billion EURO/USD). 3. Issuing Bank: HSBC Bank London, Barclay's bank London,Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank Frankfurt. 4. Age: One Year, One Month 5. Purchasing Price: 32% of face value plus 2% commission fees Leasing Price: 4% of Face Value plus 1% commission fees. 6. Delivery: Bank to Bank swift. 7. Payment: MT-103 or MT760 8. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days. We are ready to close leasing/Buying with any interested client in few banking days, if interested do not hesitate to contact me Name : PAUL DAVID Email: pauldavid20001@gmail.com Skype: P_david123@outlook.com whatsapp:+447921551354

    ReplyDelete
  32. FINANCIAL AGENT LIMITED provides a full financial planning service to both the commercial and domestic markets. At IQ FINANCE PLC we believe that financial planning is about two things: creating wealth and protecting wealth. These two objectives are at the heart of everything we do. And, as a member of FINANCIAL AGENT LIMITED Services, we give you a small-company service but with a large-company set up – the best of both worlds.  
    You are at liberty to engage our leased facilities into trade programs as well as in signature project(s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication, construction of Dams, Bridges and any other turnkey project(s) etc. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable. 
    Leasing Price : 6%+2%
    Buying Price: 38%+2%

    Contact us for more details on our terms and procedure of transaction.

    NAME  :Jason Edward
    EMAIL :financialagentltd@gmail.com
    SKYPE :financialagentltd@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  33. We are project funder as well as financial lender. We have BG/SBLC specifically for BUY/LEASE Issuance by HSBC London and many other 25 top AA rated Bank in Europe, Middle East or USA. We also secure funding. Also We are into the provision of short term and long term business/personal loans for both small and large scale business funds.


    FOR LEASING OF BG/SBLC


    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M

    LEASING FEE = 3%+1%

    FOR PURCHASE OF FRESH CUT BG/SBLC

    PRICE = 30%+1%

    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M


    Intermediaries/Consultants/Brokers are welcome to bring their clients and are 100% protected. In complete confidence, we will work together for the benefits of all parties involved. 



    Contact Email: servisefinancial@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  34. (BG) AND STANDBY LETTER OF CREDIT (SBLC) FOR BUY OR LEASE AT THE BEST AVAILABLE RATES

    Dear Sir/Ma,

    We offer certified and verifiable financial bank instruments via Swift Transmission from a genuine provider capable
    of taking up time bound transactions.

    FOR LEASING OF BG/SBLC
    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M
    LEASING FEE = 4%+2%
    FOR PURCHASE OF FRESH CUT BG/SBLC
    PRICE = 32%+2%
    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M

    Our BG/SBLC Financing can help you get your project funded,
    loan financing by providing you with yearly.
    RWA ready to close leasing with any interested client in few banking days

    I will be glad to share with you our working procedures.

    Name : Scott james

    Email : inquiry.securedfunding@gmail.com
    Skype : Inquiry.securedfunding@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  35. Sawda Capital Finance provides affordable loans that align and suit your
    current financial situation.

    We provide various types of loans, Personal Loans, Debt Consolidation
    Loans, Car Finance, Agricultural Loans, Home Loans, Business Loans.

    Send us a reply and we will provide you with our loan application
    requirements with minimum criteria that meet most credit providers
    approval.

    Email: sawda.finance@gmail.com
    Phone: +918415036110
    WhatsApp: +918415036110

    ReplyDelete
  36. GENUINE BANK GUARANTEE (BG) AND STANDBY LETTER OF CREDIT (SBLC) FOR LEASE AT THE LOWEST RATES AVAILABLE. OTHER FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS SUCH AS MTN, CD, DLC, PB ARE ALSO AVAILABLE.

    I am direct to a provider who has recently issued banking instruments for a couple of my clients the provider is 100% check-able you can do your due diligence on them. I personally know the provider.

    Our instruments are only from triple 'a' rated banks and we issue from $1M to $5B . The provider is 100% verifiable. If you are genuinely seeking bank instruments. Contact me and i will furnish you with details.

    They deal with issuing of instruments such as Bank Guarantee and Standby letters of credit also Letters of credit. I only want serious buyers then i will put you in touch with the provider directly.

    - Bank Guarantee (BG)
    - Standby Letter of Credit (SBLC)
    - Direct Line of Credit (DLC)
    - Medium Term Note (MTN)
    - Letter of Credit (LC)
    I will be glad to share with you our working procedures.
    Contact : Robert Bouffad
    Email: Lendingtreemoney@gmail.com
    Skype: Robert Bouffad
    BROKERS ARE WELCOME & 100% PROTECTED!!!

    ReplyDelete
  37. We are major/Direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC, POF, MTN, Bonds and CDs and this financial instruments are specifically for lease and sale.We are one of the leading Financial instrument providers with offices all over Europe. 
    We are major/Direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC, POF, MTN, Bonds and CDs and this financial instruments are specifically for lease and sale.We are one of the leading Financial instrument providers with offices all over Europe. 
    we always deliver on time and precision as Set forth in the agreement. You are at liberty to engage our leased facilities into trade programs, project financing, Credit line enhancement, Corporate Loans (Business Start-up Loans or Business Expansion Loans), Equipment Procurement Loans (Industrial Equipment, Air crafts, Ships, etc.) as well as other financial instruments issued from AAA Rated bank such as HSBC Bank Hong Kong, HSBC Bank London, Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt, Barclays Bank , Standard Chartered Bank and others on lease at the lowest available rates depending on the face value of the instrument needed, Our Terms and Conditions are reasonable. 

    DESCRIPTION OF INSTRUMENTS: 
    1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG)/SBLC (Appendix A) 
    2. Total Face Value: 10M MIN to 50B MAX USD or Euro 
    3. Issuing Bank: HSBC, Deutsche Bank Frankfurt, UBS or any Top 25 . 
    4. Age: One Year, One Day 
    5. Leasing Price: 4 1% 
    6. Sale Price: 32 2% 
    7. Delivery by SWIFT . 
    8. Payment: MT103-23 
    9. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days 

    We are ready to close leasing with any interested client in few banking days, if interested do not hesitate to contact me direct. 

    Name:May Gary 
    Email:algecoglobalfinanceplc@gmail.com 
    Skype::algecoglobalfinanceplc    
    or let us know via WhatsApp:+447451284251 

    ReplyDelete
  38. GENUINE BANK GUARANTEE (BG) AND STANDBY LETTER OF CREDIT (SBLC) FOR LEASE AT THE LOWEST RATES AVAILABLE. OTHER FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS SUCH AS MTN, CD, DLC, PB ARE ALSO AVAILABLE.

    I am direct to a provider who has recently issued banking instruments for a couple of my clients the provider is 100% check-able you can do your due diligence on them. I personally know the provider.

    Our instruments are only from triple 'a' rated banks and we issue from $1M to $5B . The provider is 100% verifiable. If you are genuinely seeking bank instruments. Contact me and i will furnish you with details.

    They deal with issuing of instruments such as Bank Guarantee and Standby letters of credit also Letters of credit. I only want serious buyers then i will put you in touch with the provider directly.

    - Bank Guarantee (BG)
    - Standby Letter of Credit (SBLC)
    - Direct Line of Credit (DLC)
    - Medium Term Note (MTN)
    - Letter of Credit (LC)
    I will be glad to share with you our working procedures.
    Contact : Robert Bouffad
    Email: Lendingtreemoney@gmail.com
    Whatsapp: +447586540601
    Postal address
    Swiss National Bank
    Börsenstrasse 15
    P. O. Box
    CH-8022 Zurich
    BROKERS ARE WELCOME & 100% PROTECTED!!!

    ReplyDelete
  39. Blank ATM Cards
    We have specially programmed ATM cards for sale.
    These ATM cards can be used to withdraw cash at any ATM machines or swipe & stores, outlets and any point of sales.
    We sell these cards to all our customers and interested buyers worldwide. Some cards have a daily withdrawal limit of $5,000 in ATM and up to $100,000 spending limit depending on the usage.
    Becoming wealthy and living the lifestyle of the rich and famous is the dream of many people. And whilst most people go to work or seek other ethical methods of making money online.
    The blank ATM withdraws money from any ATM machines and there is no name on it because it is blank, it is not traceable and now I have money for business, shopping and enough money for me and my family to live on.
    PROGRAMMED blank ATM card will be delivered to you anywhere in the world.
    E-Mail: atmservices44@yahoo.com
    Email: hacklords.investors@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete